Punching Myself in the Face

I’m gonna flap my arms and fly over the Statehouse dome. And if I should fail, I will punch myself in the face.

That is the essence of Vermont’s Global Warming Solutions Act.

The “flap my arms and fly” portion of the GWSA is a set of unachievable carbon emissions reduction targets. The “punch myself in the face” part is the GWSA’s invitation to sue Vermont at taxpayer expense when the unachievable targets are not met. We will then face the prospect of a judge ordering the Secretary of Vermont’s Agency of Natural Resources to make rules that accomplish the impossible.

It won’t be pretty.

The GWSA, passed over Governor Phil Scott’s veto in 2020, was modeled on a Massachusetts law. When Massachusetts failed to meet goals under its law, the Conservation Law Foundation took the state to court and won. Forced to act, Massachusetts undertook the construction of a transmission line to import electricity from Hydro Quebec. The transmission line runs through Maine. It is an environmental disaster that is fragmenting vital wildlife habitat that we must preserve if we are to slow the collapse of biodiversity.

In Vermont, proponents envisioned a three-legged stool holding up the GWSA: the Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI), the Clean Heat Standard (CHS), and the Renewable Energy Standard (RES).

It’s a rickety stool. In fact, the GWSA doesn’t have a leg to stand on. The TCI is dead. The CHS is about to die. And the technology does not yet exist to meet Vermont’s energy demand while satisfying RES requirements.

The 12-state TCI was a scheme to tax transportation fuels and invest the revenues in favored programs and technologies that promised to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Of course, the taxes weren’t called taxes—they were called “allowances” and were indulgences that the sinful fuel suppliers could buy. Vermont’s sinful drivers would end up bearing the costs of the indulgences.

The TCI died when all of the participating states dropped out. Governor Scott pulled Vermont out in 2021.

Vermont’s Clean Heat Standard was intended to limit greenhouse gas emissions from heating our homes and businesses. The Legislature imagined a framework of incentives and disincentives to implement the CHS called “The Affordable Heat Act.” The Legislature overrode Governor Scott’s veto of the act.

The Public Utility Commission was charged with working out the details and in January 2025, the PUC released its report. Long story short:  the Clean Heat Standard is expensive, unworkable, and less effective than alternative approaches.

Vermonters already knew this. Political analysts suggest that the Clean Heat Standard was a major reason that the Democrats lost their supermajority in the Legislature. Now, even if the newly elected Legislature approves the CHS’s implementation, it will not survive Governor Scott’s veto.

The third leg of the GWSA stool is Vermont’s Renewable Energy Standard. The Legislature overrode Governor Scott’s veto of an update to the RES; the update puts our statutory goals even further beyond our reach.

The RES limits the electricity supply by restricting imports and reducing the electricity generation technologies that Vermont utilities can make use of. So, at a time when legislators want to electrify everything, they are also increasing our reliance on intermittent, in-state wind and solar. This will ensure that our supply of electricity is insufficient, unreliable, and unaffordable.

And now we have to add Donald Trump to the mix. Don’t be surprised if he ends federal tax breaks for wind and solar. Without federal tax breaks, nobody will even want to put up utility-scale wind or solar.

Vermonters are already paying a heavy price for unrealistic policies and unachievable goals. It will get even heavier when the Conservation Law Foundation reprises their Massachusetts performance and uses the GWSA (and our money) to force us to commit environmental atrocities in the name of emissions reduction.

Both the Global Warming Solutions Act and the Renewable Energy Standard require major overhauls. Let’s hope that our new Legislature got the message that Vermonters sent in the 2024 election. Otherwise, we will be punching ourselves in the face while we’re freezing in the dark.